Of garbage and other demons

Dashed hopes

Britain will find it 'impossible' to meet its target as part of the world's battle to ensure temperatures do not rise more than 2C - a key threshold for dangerous climate change, according to a study by a panel of leading experts.

The report 'Carbon Scenarios' by the Stockholm Network thinktank says that if existing policies and hopes of international agreement on reducing emissions were implemented, there would still be a 90 per cent chance the temperature rise would reach about 3C, a level that experts fear would provoke 'feedback' of more carbon by melting permafrost, threatening the world's forests.

If governments let policies 'stall and backslide' - as many appear to be doing - the rise would be 4.8C, says the study, to be published tomorrow. 'The two-degree target is impossible, and [a] three-degree target is implausible,' said Paul Domjan, energy fellow at the London-based European thinktank and an author of the report.

Domjan said the modelling, done by the world-renowned Hadley Centre at the Met Office but using emissions calculated by the Stockholm Network, highlighted three problems: 'Current policy comes in too slowly, it internationalises too slowly and it binds developing countries too late.'

Privately, many climate scientists believe it will be impossible to meet the 2C target, but they are reluctant to say so because they do not want to discourage moves to cut emissions.

The report says dangerous temperature rises could be avoided by a 'step change' in emissions reductions. To do this, the thinktank advocates a global cap on production of fossil fuels which would be auctioned to energy generators to raise money to compensate producers and pay developing nations to help adapt. 'Wealth transfer isn't an addendum, it's the most important part of carbon policy, because without it the developing world won't introduce emissions reductions and without emissions reductions we won't have lower temperatures,' Domjan added.

The report comes as Environment Secretary Hilary Benn prepares to announce tomorrow whether the government will increase its pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions from 60 to 80 per cent when it begins the second reading of the historic Climate Change Bill.

The bill was welcomed as the world's first binding targets for carbon reductions, but criticised as too weak, leading to amendments in the Lords, including a commitment for Britain to pursue policies consistent with an increase of only 2C and to include aviation emissions at a later date. Most experts agree that to hit a rise of 2C, Britain and other developed countries would have to slash emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. Benn must respond to those amendments when the second reading is introduced, either by accepting them or explaining why the government has changed or rejected them.

Department for the Environment officials said the bill had been 'strengthened quite significantly' by the amendments, but 'remains largely unchanged', both raising and dashing hopes that they have accepted some or all the changes. Some campaigners fear the government, under pressure over rising oil prices not to introduce what are seen as expensive 'green' policies, are not ready to bow to the demands in full.

Juliette Jowit, The Observer, 8 June 2008.

Nothing comes for free, alas ...

Britain's £800m international project to help the poorest countries in the world adapt to climate change was under fire last night after it emerged that almost all the money offered by Gordon Brown will have to be repaid with interest.

The UK environmental transformation fund was announced by the prime minister to international acclaim in November 2007, and was widely expected to be made in direct grants to countries experiencing extreme droughts, storms and sea level rise associated with climate change.

But the Guardian has learned that the money is not additional British aid and will be administered by the World Bank mainly in the form of concessionary loans which poor countries will have to pay back to Britain with interest.

A letter signed by two government ministers and seen by the Guardian shows that Britain has been pressing other G8 countries to also give money to the new fund, which will be launched in July in Japan at the G8's annual meeting.

"UK contributions from the environmental transformation fund ... will need to be primarily concessional loans. We will also talk to other donor countries about the possibility of grants," the letter, signed by environment minister Phil Woolas and international aid counterpart Gareth Thomas, said.

The letter shows that the US has resisted the idea of loans, preferring to give developing countries grants. "We understand that grants would be the US preferred approach," the British ministers say. Both their departments are understood to have argued strongly that the money should be in direct grant form on principle, but were overruled by the Treasury.

Last night several countries joined environment and development groups to condemn the loans. "We need urgently to prepare for climate change, but we are not in a position to pay back loans," said a spokesman for the Bangladesh high commission in London.

"The climate situation has not been created by us. The money should come spontaneously from rich countries and not be a loan." Bangladesh expects up to 80 million people to be displaced by climate change within 50 years.

A senior Brazilian diplomat was "indignant" that poor countries should have to borrow the money to prepare their populations for climate change. "It is not nearly enough money to tackle the problem, but I am not surprised. Increasing the debt of countries is not a good idea."

Development groups said they were dismayed that climate adaptation funds would be funded by any sort of loan. "The money should be additional to aid," said Toby Quantrill, head of international government at WWF.

"It should be grants and not loans, otherwise developing countries will have to pay twice, once for the emissions that caused the problems and then again to clean up the mess," said Tom Sharman, a policy adviser with ActionAid in London. "This is not money that is additional to Britain's aid budget. It seems strange to be cancelling debt and then inviting poor countries to take on new debt."

The fund will be promoted as the G8's showpiece contribution to developing countries at the next meeting of the organisation, in Japan in July. The US and Japan are understood to have agreed to contribute but figures have not yet been decided. Britain hopes that the fund will attract more than £1.5bn.

The principle of a major fund to help poor countries adapt has been widely welcomed because the international community has so far contributed very little. The World Bank administers 10 climate funds but the majority have little money available.

Concerns were also expressed that the World Bank, to which Britain is now the largest contributor, is now becoming the main disburser of international money for climate change as well as a major funder of climate change emissions.

"Between 2005 and 2007 the Bank financed greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuel projects from coal, oil and gas to the tune of $1.5bn (£767m). At the same time the Bank acts as trustee to 10 greenhouse gas-reducing funds, pocketing an average 13% 'overhead' in the process", said Janet Redman, an analyst with Washington thinktank Foreign Policy in Focus.

According to the government, the £800m will be spent over the next three years, focusing on projects that support development through environmental protection and which help poor countries to tackle climate change. Of the money, £50m has been earmarked for helping 10 countries in central Africa to tackle deforestation in the Congo basin.

In a statement placed on the Department for International Development (Dfid) website, a government spokeswoman said: "A number of details are still under discussion, including the structure of the funds, how they are governed, which countries are prioritised for funding, and how much money different donors will commit.

"The World Bank is currently consulting widely on the proposals. Dfid, Defra [the environment department] and other Whitehall departments will continue to participate in further consultation discussions with the World Bank, other multilateral and bilateral donors, developing countries, the UN system and civil society with the aim of launching the funds at the G8 summit in July.

"Funding should support country-owned action plans and must be consistent with wider poverty reduction activities at a country level."

Taken from The Guardian, 17 May 2008, UK demands repayment of climate aid to poor nations, by John Vidal.

It's getting late ...

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached a record high, according to new figures that renew fears that climate change could begin to slide out of control.

Scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii say that CO2 levels in the atmosphere now stand at 387 parts per million (ppm), up almost 40% since the industrial revolution and the highest for at least the last 650,000 years.

The figures, published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on its website, also confirm that carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas, is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than expected. The annual mean growth rate for 2007 was 2.14ppm – the fourth year in the past six to see an annual rise greater than 2ppm. From 1970 to 2000, the concentration rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 the annual rise has leapt to an average 2.1ppm.

Scientists say the shift could indicate that the Earth is losing its natural ability to soak up billions of tons of carbon each year. Climate models assume that about half our future emissions will be re-absorbed by forests and oceans, but the new figures confirm this may be too optimistic. If more of our carbon pollution stays in the atmosphere, it means emissions will have to be cut by more than currently projected to prevent dangerous levels of global warming.

Martin Parry, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's working group on impacts, said: "Despite all the talk, the situation is getting worse. Levels of greenhouse gases continue to rise in the atmosphere and the rate of that rise is accelerating. We are already seeing the impacts of climate change and the scale of those impacts will also accelerate, until we decide to do something about it."

Taken from The Guardian, 12 May 2008, World CO2 levels reach record high, scientists warn by David Adam.

Water Stress

According to the IPCC, 75-250 million people will be exposed to "increased water stress" (i.e. will have trouble accessing water) by 2020.

Alas, water stress is not a futuristic concept. It is probably at the root of one the ugliest, most tragic and longest-lasting conflicts in the world. Drying up Palestine is an eye-opening documentary by Rima Essa and Peter Snowdon (screened at last year's Festival des Images de la Mer in Brussels) that sheds light on the stresses and strains imposed on Palestinian society by Israel’s almost total control over access to water and sewage facilities in the Occupied Territories.

Click here to watch it and glean an insight into this climate-related problem that is bound to grow in frequency and intensity in the coming years.

Favourite pic of the month

Taken from The Guardian's The Week in Wildlife
London, UK: Conchita, a three-week-old white-naped mangabey with its constant teddy bear companion. The monkey is currently being hand reared while its mother recuperates from a caesarian.

More sci-fi?

Blue Alert – Climate Migrants in South Asia: Estimates and Solutions is a paper authored by Dr Sudhir Chella Rajan, professor of Humanities and Social Sciences at IIT Madras, and a climate expert. She estimates the number of people who could be displaced from their homes as a result of climate change at 125 million in India and Bangladesh alone.

Blue Alert warns that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow under the business-as-usual scenario as projected, leading to global temperature rise by 4-5°C , the South Asian region could face a wave of migrants displaced by the impacts of climate change, including sea level rise and drought associated with shrinking water supplies and monsoon variability. Dr. Chella Rajan recommended that “India should seek policy options that are proactive in terms of developing international strategies to reduce the risk of destructive climate change. We cannot wait for the inevitable to happen and hope to adapt to it.”

For more information, click here

Photo: Courtesy of Dino Mangion